Speed and Strength of an Epidemic by Duschoff and Park

Summary

Main Points

Questions

Code/ Supplemental Data

Implications for Infectious Diseases## Summary

Traditionally we have examined the “strength” of an epidemic as measured by $R_0$. This typically minimizes the role that the related speed, r, can play during an epidemic. In this analysis Duschoff and Park examine the how thinking about strategies on invention can be more intuitive understood through diminishing the strength of an epidemic (e.g., mass vaccination, lockdown, condom use) versus the speed of an epidemic (e.g., contract testing, quarantines, etc.).

Main Points

• Speed and strength are related (e.g., $R_0$ and $r$ are related through the generation time, so the conclusions will be similar, but some of the nuance is better captured through this framework).
• Strength-based interventions are clearer for the interventions that target entire populations
• Speed-based interventions are clearer for interventions which target infected people
• Early in epidemics you may only really have $r$ because the other parameters are unknown or more difficult to estimate

Questions

Code/ Supplemental Data

https://github.com/mac-theobio/Speed_and_strength